I think we all need to make some predictions, here on the Forever Internet, as to how this round of alignment will shake out. Then, in a year or two, we can call this thread back up and see who is smart and who is dumb.
First, some guardrails… The ACC schools are bound by a “grant of rights” provision that prevents any of them from leaving the ACC prior to 2036. They also have a $52 million exit fee. The GOR provision requires that any school that leaves prior to 2036 would have to surrender any new media rights revenues back the ACC until 2036. So, for the sake of this thought experiment, I don’t think any ACC schools are moving anywhere. I know smart attorneys are working on this, and that one way it goes away is if the entire ACC folds, but for now I’m setting them aside.
As always, tv drives this bus, though in this new era there are some new players. There is quite a bit of chatter that Apple is a new bidder for the Big 10’s media rights now that the California schools are inbound. Amazon has also been rumored to be in play, along with the traditional players like ESPN and Fox.
The MW’s current media rights deal runs through 2026. I don’t know anyone who has seen the specific terms of the deal, but I would be surprised if there were not provisions included to allow the media partners involved to recalibrate should the current makeup of the league change. That was a 6 year, $270 million deal.
For context, the current MW media deal pays about $4MM to each member school annually (Hawaii is kind of an exception, but who cares). The current PAC12 deal pays each member about $34MM per year, and the Big10 deal pays each member about $54MM. Both the PAC12 and Big10 media deals are up for renewal in the next two years, and it seems likely that the per school payout for the new Big10 will be north of $65MM, or about 16 times what the MW schools make.
These dollars make change inevitable. Anyone who cites “historic rivalries” or “tradition” as a reason further moves won’t happen is denying reality. The dollars are too significant for the whores who populate college administration to ignore.
We must also remember that it was just a few months ago when CSU and AFA were ACTIVELY trying to leave the MW to go play in the AAC, and Boise and SDSU were convinced to stay, though not without some wrangling behind the scenes.
So we know that CSU and AFA want out, even if it only means a lateral move. And we know that SDSU and Boise are attractive targets for other leagues given their location and football tradition, respectively.
I have to imagine that contact has already been made between the PAC12 and SDSU. Many like to cite Boise’s academic reputation as disqualifying for the PAC12, but I’m not sure that’s the case when the PAC12 faces a potential planet-killer comet coming at it.
Prediction #1: SDSU will not be a member of the MW beyond the current media deal, and maybe not beyond 2024. They are too much of a no-brainer,
Prediction #2: Boise is as good as gone as well. Maybe not to the Pac12, but certainly somewhere. They’re gone.
Prediction #3: The departures of Boise and SDSU will provide the pretext for CSU and AF to make lateral moves somewhere. With the Big 12 falling apart and down a rung, they could be a destination for a service academy. CSU has a history of being dumb, so I could see them jumping back into bed with the AAC or something similar.
Prediction #4: By 2026, Boise, SDSU, AFA and CSU will no longer be members of the MW. Who replaces them? Maybe Montana and NDSU make the jump up a division and come in. More likely, it would be a re-run of the panicked last days of the WAC with odd, non-regional schools cobbled together to make a league.
Prediction #5: Vegas is growing and becoming a major league city with an NFL team and potentially an NBA team in the next round of expansion. UNLV has structural advantages within that market that make them remaining in a backwater league like the MW unlikely. I know they have no real football tradition and very few people care about them. But some tv executive somewhere will want access to that media market and the sports/media ecosystem growing up there, and they will pull the trigger in making an offer to UNLV. Maybe not in this round, but I bet by 2026 they’re out of here.
Prediction #6 (my big one): The current MW media deal will be the last one the MW ever executes. Boise and SDSU are certainly gone soon. CSU and AFA will take the next offer they get. UNLV is probably leaving, but they’re the most uncertain. The MW without those five schools really isn’t worth maintaining. The reason I know this is because the MW without those schools would garner a media deal significantly lower than what we have now. That will not be acceptable to any of our administrators and will force them to look around.
And what will they see? They will see a landscape that is going to continue to bifurcate over the next few years. College sports is evolving into a top tier with the SEC and the Big10, a middle tier with whatever is left of the old Big12 and Pac12, and then the rest of us. As all this change happens over the next few years, orphaned schools from other G6 leagues will be forced to partner up with the detritus of the MW, like Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah State. My guess is that by the 2027 season we are playing in some glued together “super league” consisting of the remnants of multiple former G6 leagues.
The ONLY way I see this not happening is if the Pac12 folds as a result of the USC/UCLA move, or if the league is sucked up entirely by the Big10. I don’t think either scenario is likely, but also not impossible.
I hope I am not right about much or any of this, but I suspect I am. Maybe Thompson will prove me wrong.
First, some guardrails… The ACC schools are bound by a “grant of rights” provision that prevents any of them from leaving the ACC prior to 2036. They also have a $52 million exit fee. The GOR provision requires that any school that leaves prior to 2036 would have to surrender any new media rights revenues back the ACC until 2036. So, for the sake of this thought experiment, I don’t think any ACC schools are moving anywhere. I know smart attorneys are working on this, and that one way it goes away is if the entire ACC folds, but for now I’m setting them aside.
As always, tv drives this bus, though in this new era there are some new players. There is quite a bit of chatter that Apple is a new bidder for the Big 10’s media rights now that the California schools are inbound. Amazon has also been rumored to be in play, along with the traditional players like ESPN and Fox.
The MW’s current media rights deal runs through 2026. I don’t know anyone who has seen the specific terms of the deal, but I would be surprised if there were not provisions included to allow the media partners involved to recalibrate should the current makeup of the league change. That was a 6 year, $270 million deal.
For context, the current MW media deal pays about $4MM to each member school annually (Hawaii is kind of an exception, but who cares). The current PAC12 deal pays each member about $34MM per year, and the Big10 deal pays each member about $54MM. Both the PAC12 and Big10 media deals are up for renewal in the next two years, and it seems likely that the per school payout for the new Big10 will be north of $65MM, or about 16 times what the MW schools make.
These dollars make change inevitable. Anyone who cites “historic rivalries” or “tradition” as a reason further moves won’t happen is denying reality. The dollars are too significant for the whores who populate college administration to ignore.
We must also remember that it was just a few months ago when CSU and AFA were ACTIVELY trying to leave the MW to go play in the AAC, and Boise and SDSU were convinced to stay, though not without some wrangling behind the scenes.
So we know that CSU and AFA want out, even if it only means a lateral move. And we know that SDSU and Boise are attractive targets for other leagues given their location and football tradition, respectively.
I have to imagine that contact has already been made between the PAC12 and SDSU. Many like to cite Boise’s academic reputation as disqualifying for the PAC12, but I’m not sure that’s the case when the PAC12 faces a potential planet-killer comet coming at it.
Prediction #1: SDSU will not be a member of the MW beyond the current media deal, and maybe not beyond 2024. They are too much of a no-brainer,
Prediction #2: Boise is as good as gone as well. Maybe not to the Pac12, but certainly somewhere. They’re gone.
Prediction #3: The departures of Boise and SDSU will provide the pretext for CSU and AF to make lateral moves somewhere. With the Big 12 falling apart and down a rung, they could be a destination for a service academy. CSU has a history of being dumb, so I could see them jumping back into bed with the AAC or something similar.
Prediction #4: By 2026, Boise, SDSU, AFA and CSU will no longer be members of the MW. Who replaces them? Maybe Montana and NDSU make the jump up a division and come in. More likely, it would be a re-run of the panicked last days of the WAC with odd, non-regional schools cobbled together to make a league.
Prediction #5: Vegas is growing and becoming a major league city with an NFL team and potentially an NBA team in the next round of expansion. UNLV has structural advantages within that market that make them remaining in a backwater league like the MW unlikely. I know they have no real football tradition and very few people care about them. But some tv executive somewhere will want access to that media market and the sports/media ecosystem growing up there, and they will pull the trigger in making an offer to UNLV. Maybe not in this round, but I bet by 2026 they’re out of here.
Prediction #6 (my big one): The current MW media deal will be the last one the MW ever executes. Boise and SDSU are certainly gone soon. CSU and AFA will take the next offer they get. UNLV is probably leaving, but they’re the most uncertain. The MW without those five schools really isn’t worth maintaining. The reason I know this is because the MW without those schools would garner a media deal significantly lower than what we have now. That will not be acceptable to any of our administrators and will force them to look around.
And what will they see? They will see a landscape that is going to continue to bifurcate over the next few years. College sports is evolving into a top tier with the SEC and the Big10, a middle tier with whatever is left of the old Big12 and Pac12, and then the rest of us. As all this change happens over the next few years, orphaned schools from other G6 leagues will be forced to partner up with the detritus of the MW, like Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah State. My guess is that by the 2027 season we are playing in some glued together “super league” consisting of the remnants of multiple former G6 leagues.
The ONLY way I see this not happening is if the Pac12 folds as a result of the USC/UCLA move, or if the league is sucked up entirely by the Big10. I don’t think either scenario is likely, but also not impossible.
I hope I am not right about much or any of this, but I suspect I am. Maybe Thompson will prove me wrong.
