That's why it is so difficult to predict. Everyone is acting in their own self-interest, which is expected, but behaving in ways that can only be described as retarded.
It is very clear that what the PAC2 really wanted was a reverse merger without Wyoming and Hawaii for sure, and probably without Nevada and New Mexico if they could get away with it. But they screwed it all up by making their first move with the Traitor 4. They must have never read the MW bylaws, because as soon as they executed it, those 4 schools lost their voting power to dissolve the league. They went with the original Traitor 4 because they were easy, and then thought they could grab AFA and UNLV in the next wave. The problem was that grabbing UNLV without NEV would have brought public scrutiny they didn't want. Once they went, it would have been a race between USU and SJSU to vote to dissolve and get an invite. That would have given them the votes to dissolve the MW and avoid any exit fees, with a 9 team league that would have made football scheduling easy.
What drove all this was simple greed. The PAC2's media consultant said they could expect something in the neighborhood of $11 million/year per school in a new media deal. That was based on an 8-team league. Adding schools like Utah State or Nevada doesn't materially impact media rights. Adding a school like Utah State doesn't push the full value of the deal much, it just creates another mouth to feed. In an 8-team PAC, schools get about $11 million/year, but in a 12-team PAC each school gets MAYBE $7 million to $8 million. Long story short, in the interest of chasing another $3 million or so in media rights fees, the PAC2 ****ed up their whole merger. The PAC2 should have done a full reverse merger, even if it meant a lighter media rights deal. This would have allowed OSU and WSU to keep much of that $255 million war chest for themselves, and given themselves a competitive advantage in reaching the CFP. Now they're chasing schools like Sacramento State to make their deal work. As such, they are RETARDED.
The MW office has not covered itself in glory, either. Gloria has certainly done better than Thompson would have, but goddamn did they overplay their hand in trying to renew the scheduling agreement. It's now obvious that what should have been pursued is a soft merger over time. The PAC2 wanted to wait and see if the ACC would dissolve through litigation brought by FSU and Clemson. For the life of me, I don't understand why we decided to push the PAC2's backs against the wall by demanding an increase in fees for a renewed scheduling agreement. The Grant of Rights in the ACC is well-known as iron clad. It's studied in law schools! The ACC process was always very likely going to end in a settlement that got FSU and Clemson some weighted tv dollars. How do I know this? Because complicated litigation like that almost never goes all the way to trial, and that likelihood goes down even more when public institutions are involved. The ACC mess was headed for a settlement from Day 1. Gloria and the MW should have been the PAC2's best friend and positioned ourselves as their next best option - or even executed a provisional merger set for 2026 contingent on certain conditions like Stanford and Cal not becoming available again. Instead, we tried to jam the PAC2 into a merger on our timeline instead of theirs with a hardball scheduling agreement. As such, the MW office is (as usual) RETARDED.
The bozos in Old Main, the AD and the Trustees are not immune. Reportedly, a key driver for the PAC2 to extend an invite is a commitment from the incoming school to spend at least $60 million annually on athletics. There is a 2-year grace period for schools to get their budgets to that level. The elephant driving all of this is the new College Football Playoff because an invite to that brings in, at minimum, about $7 million for the conference. After all this merging and covering some portion of exit fees, the PAC absolutely MUST be in the driver's seat to get that fifth CFP invite every year to make their numbers work. And for that to be the case, they need to be playing with schools who play big boy sports (i.e. Gonzaga in basketball, who can be reasonably assured of securing significant NCAA units each year). The Traitor 4 are all willing to make the jump to get to $60 million per year. Some of them are already there. Wyoming has had multiple opportunities to increase its overall athletics spend to a competitive level. Our annual spend is already at about $48 million! Significant investment in athletics beginning back in about 2005 or 2010 would have radically changed our fortunes. Instead, as has been discussed ad nauseum, the powers that be (Old Main, AD, Trustees, Legislature, Governors) decided to invest in one-time things like facilities. Now we see the consequences of investing in bricks instead of people. We are about to have the nicest facilities that schools like South Alabama and New Mexico State play in every year. As such, Wyoming has been and remains RETARDED.
How does this all shake out? Who knows. When greed and fear are driving decision making things tend to go sideways. No bolt of lightning is coming that will save Wyoming, I know that much.
We had our chances and didn't take them. It's a goddamn shame.
