when it came to the PAC2 and the 4 MW defectors. From an ESPN.com article,

These schools had invested in their athletic department and football programs for years in preparation for this kind of opportunity, and while this wasn't the same as joining the Pac-12 before its collapse, they strongly felt this move offered a better future than what they had in the Mountain West.

Those athletic directors' counterparts around the conference were left in the dark, and when the news leaked late Wednesday night, several administrators at other Mountain West schools were caught off guard.

"There were some things after the fact that became more clear," one Mountain West school administrator told ESPN. "Like certain people from those four schools not being present at meetings or generally unresponsive. It makes sense now, but we had no sense this was coming."

If the Pac-12 were to survive, multiple industry sources presumed to ESPN at the time, it would likely have to come through a so-called reverse merger with the Mountain West. In that scenario, the Mountain West would have added OSU and WSU, continued to be operated by its current leadership -- including commissioner Gloria Nevarez -- and adopt the Pac-12 branding. That was never the preferred outcome of OSU and WSU, however, and over the past two months, Gould -- as she was tasked to do when she was hired in February -- worked to secure an outcome more favorable for the two schools.

The Mountain West, sources said, felt protected by its bylaws and a poaching fee included in a football scheduling agreement it signed with the Pac-12 in December. To leave the conference, a school is required to pay roughly $18 million with two years of notice and $36 million with a one-year notice. And if the Pac-12 accepted a Mountain West school as a new member, the Pac-12 would be required to pay a $10 million fee, with escalators of $500,000 more for each additional school. (The four-school fee for Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State is $43 million.)

Even so, when the scheduling agreement was announced, it included an instructive comment from Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes: "We are still focused on re-building the Pac-12."

WHEN TALKS ABOUT extending the scheduling agreement started a few weeks after media day, little progress was made. The Mountain West overestimated how vulnerable the Pac-12 was from a negotiating position and asked for more than the $14 million it received last year, with the Pac-12 countering with less than half that. When it became clear the Sept. 1 deadline to extend the agreement would pass, the Pac-12 became more serious about attempting a true rebuild.

"There is a lot of negotiation that still needs to happen between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West and among the various schools on what that exit is going to look like, what scheduling alliances are going to look like and all sorts of different details," Colorado State president Amy Parsons said. "We have some time on that. We're playing out the Mountain West all of next year and into the following. We will not have those details pinned down for some time.

"We are grateful to the Pac-12 that they're investing in the four schools who are leaving the Mountain West in a way that makes us feel comfortable that we're going to come out strong and ready to really compete at that level. But a lot of details [to get figured out] going forward."

For years, the teams at the top of the Mountain West in terms of investment had grown tired of the bottom third's inability to keep up, which contributed to the appeal of this model as opposed to adding OSU and WSU to the Mountain West, sources said.

Nevarez caught wind of the possibility early last week, sources said, but the departing schools did not communicate their intention to leave before the deals were done. With six schools, the Pac-12 still has to add at least two more by July 1, 2026, and there is not a firm timeline for when those additions will be made.
The conference is expected to explore options in the American Athletic Conference -- namely Tulane and Memphis -- but it's too early to say what the true appetite will be. Without a significant increase in their current media deal -- AAC schools receive about $7 million annually -- it becomes tougher to justify the added logistical hurdles of playing in a conference with a larger footprint, especially as a geographic outlier.

There is a good chance additional Mountain West schools could eventually find their way to the Pac-12. UNLV, for example, was a surprising omission this round for many industry sources given its relatively similar profile to the four departing schools, but the conference was steadfast in starting with this group.

"I can't say I'm surprised [UNLV was not included] because I was pleased with the configuration, and actually the metrics and the metrics spoke to the decision-making process, and I and they were very, very objective in that sense," San Diego State president Adela de la Torre said. "So in my mind, I think it was the best four that were selected."

and now...

Air Force has emerged as a serious target to be added to the American Athletic Conference, sources told ESPN on Monday.

Air Force had been referenced in conversations as a potential AAC add in recent months, prior to the Pac-12 taking four Mountain West Conference schools last week.