Of our D1 opponents in 2022 we are 3-3 with 5 of our opponents in the top half of all defenses nationally. Our FBS opponents are a cumulative 21-14 with the teams who beat us compiling a 13-4 cumulative record to date. We have 5 MWC games remaining with 2 home and 3 road games. Our remaining opponents are a cumulative 9-19 so we officially opened with the toughest part of the schedule. Will our remaining opponents continue to be losers? We will soon find out.
The chart below indicates the strength of the opponents ability to Rush or Pass and their strength against the Rush or Pass or for each category Both or Neither.
We will be playing these defenses:
#4 BSU B
#88 FSU P
#90 USU P
#94 CSU R
#124 Hawaii N
We have played these defenses:
#2 Illinois (6) B
#16 SJSU (16) B
#19 AFA (17) B
#42 UNM (27) R
#58 BYU (24) R
#89 Tulsa (40) P
We are 76th on defense and our strength is against the Rush.
We will be playing these offenses:
#85 FSU P
#95 USU P
#106 BSU R
#118 Hawaii P
#130 CSU P
We have played these offenses:
#37 AFA (14) R
#45 Tulsa (37) P
#58 BYU (38) P
#83 SJSU (38) P
#128 UNM (14) R
We are 1-2 against Passing teams and 2-0 against Rushing teams.
We are a disappointing 121st nationally and are an offensive B with nearly identical Rush and Pass totals.
Based on the 7th week of play with teams nationally having played nearly half a season the statistics are now normalizing into an indicative curve. This is the statistical order of difficulty in our remaining games:
1 - BSU
2 - @FSU
3 - USU
4 - @CSU
5 - @Hawaii
The road to the division title can culminate with the BSU game if - and only if - we win the next 4 games. It is very doubtful that BSU is anything less then 5-1 when they come to Laramie. Therefore we need to be 5-1 as well and beat BSU to go 6-1 before playing Fresno. We also have to hope @AFA beats BSU. The only way to the title at 2-1 with BSU being 3-0 and playing weak teams besides @AFA and @wyoming is to win at least 4 including beating BSU. Simply winning all remaining games clinches the division.
USU finishes with SJSU and BSU and with only 1 loss so far they have to win in Laramie or else they are most likely out.
AFA with 2 losses (Wyoming and USU) would have to win all remaining games and hope BSU, Wyoming and USU lose 2 more to have a chance at the division.
Overall I feel we have a very good chance to be a 6-6 team at the minimum based on the health of the QB spot. Don’t know how good Clemons can be, but if both Peasley and Clemons went down I wouldn’t feel very good about any game. We can mathematically finish as good as 9-3 or as bad as 4-8. Historically 6-6 is a logical minimum but I think we have a solid chance to go 7-5.
All things considered the reason for a bit more optimism of 7-5 is that only BSU meets the criteria for a team that will be a very tough game. USU is coming on with the change to Cooper Legas at QB and are key in the run up to the game with BSU. We would have to play about as inept as ever to fall to Hawaii and CSU but never discount the possibility because even Vic Koenning and Craig Bohl won that unexpected conference game with 2-10 teams. Fresno is vulnerable without a healthy Haener but Haener is expected back soon so no promises there. The question is do we win 3 or more games to clinch a postseason spot outright? If we only win 2 we (“yawn”) have a successful but average year at 6-6. If we win 1 or less for a losing season our world implodes and many will be extremely furious.
The chart below indicates the strength of the opponents ability to Rush or Pass and their strength against the Rush or Pass or for each category Both or Neither.
We will be playing these defenses:
#4 BSU B
#88 FSU P
#90 USU P
#94 CSU R
#124 Hawaii N
We have played these defenses:
#2 Illinois (6) B
#16 SJSU (16) B
#19 AFA (17) B
#42 UNM (27) R
#58 BYU (24) R
#89 Tulsa (40) P
We are 76th on defense and our strength is against the Rush.
We will be playing these offenses:
#85 FSU P
#95 USU P
#106 BSU R
#118 Hawaii P
#130 CSU P
We have played these offenses:
#37 AFA (14) R
#45 Tulsa (37) P
#58 BYU (38) P
#83 SJSU (38) P
#128 UNM (14) R
We are 1-2 against Passing teams and 2-0 against Rushing teams.
We are a disappointing 121st nationally and are an offensive B with nearly identical Rush and Pass totals.
Based on the 7th week of play with teams nationally having played nearly half a season the statistics are now normalizing into an indicative curve. This is the statistical order of difficulty in our remaining games:
1 - BSU
2 - @FSU
3 - USU
4 - @CSU
5 - @Hawaii
The road to the division title can culminate with the BSU game if - and only if - we win the next 4 games. It is very doubtful that BSU is anything less then 5-1 when they come to Laramie. Therefore we need to be 5-1 as well and beat BSU to go 6-1 before playing Fresno. We also have to hope @AFA beats BSU. The only way to the title at 2-1 with BSU being 3-0 and playing weak teams besides @AFA and @wyoming is to win at least 4 including beating BSU. Simply winning all remaining games clinches the division.
USU finishes with SJSU and BSU and with only 1 loss so far they have to win in Laramie or else they are most likely out.
AFA with 2 losses (Wyoming and USU) would have to win all remaining games and hope BSU, Wyoming and USU lose 2 more to have a chance at the division.
Overall I feel we have a very good chance to be a 6-6 team at the minimum based on the health of the QB spot. Don’t know how good Clemons can be, but if both Peasley and Clemons went down I wouldn’t feel very good about any game. We can mathematically finish as good as 9-3 or as bad as 4-8. Historically 6-6 is a logical minimum but I think we have a solid chance to go 7-5.
All things considered the reason for a bit more optimism of 7-5 is that only BSU meets the criteria for a team that will be a very tough game. USU is coming on with the change to Cooper Legas at QB and are key in the run up to the game with BSU. We would have to play about as inept as ever to fall to Hawaii and CSU but never discount the possibility because even Vic Koenning and Craig Bohl won that unexpected conference game with 2-10 teams. Fresno is vulnerable without a healthy Haener but Haener is expected back soon so no promises there. The question is do we win 3 or more games to clinch a postseason spot outright? If we only win 2 we (“yawn”) have a successful but average year at 6-6. If we win 1 or less for a losing season our world implodes and many will be extremely furious.
