There are always things outside of the control of an individual program that impact how many spots are on the bubble (bid stealers, etc.), but in looking at the Pokes resume and what they need to do to earn an at-large bid, I keep coming back to the "magic number" of 15. That is 15 wins total between the MWC regular season and the MWCT. For example:
1. Scenario 1: 15-3 MWC regular season - would likely be co-champs (I still think BSU drops one) and would likely earn an at-large even if they were upset in the first round of the MWCT. Likely Top 35ish Net and 10-11 Q1/Q2 wins.
2. Scenario 2: 14-4 MWC regular season - likely tied for 2nd, Net around 40 or so, and 9-10 Q1/Q2 wins. Probably ok, but couldn't afford a bad loss in the MWCT. Getting to the semi-finals and losing a Q1 game there would probably be ok.
3. Scenario 3: 13-5 MWC regular season - Probably 4th in the MWC in this scenario and outside looking in before the MWCT. A run to the finals including a neutral court Top 30 Net win in the semi-finals would probably get the Pokes back into the discussion.
4. Scenario 4: 12-6 MWC regular season - No chance at an at-large, would need to win 3 in the MWC for the Auto Bid.
Technically there are (2) other scenarios, but 11-7 is too awful to contemplate and 16-2 is too awesome to dream of, so we will stick with the scenarios above. Long story short, Pokes still have a lot of work to do to make the NCAAT.
1. Scenario 1: 15-3 MWC regular season - would likely be co-champs (I still think BSU drops one) and would likely earn an at-large even if they were upset in the first round of the MWCT. Likely Top 35ish Net and 10-11 Q1/Q2 wins.
2. Scenario 2: 14-4 MWC regular season - likely tied for 2nd, Net around 40 or so, and 9-10 Q1/Q2 wins. Probably ok, but couldn't afford a bad loss in the MWCT. Getting to the semi-finals and losing a Q1 game there would probably be ok.
3. Scenario 3: 13-5 MWC regular season - Probably 4th in the MWC in this scenario and outside looking in before the MWCT. A run to the finals including a neutral court Top 30 Net win in the semi-finals would probably get the Pokes back into the discussion.
4. Scenario 4: 12-6 MWC regular season - No chance at an at-large, would need to win 3 in the MWC for the Auto Bid.
Technically there are (2) other scenarios, but 11-7 is too awful to contemplate and 16-2 is too awesome to dream of, so we will stick with the scenarios above. Long story short, Pokes still have a lot of work to do to make the NCAAT.
