It's a little hard to compare because last year was not a normal OOC and had an unbalanced conference schedule, but still I think it is instructive. Remember CSU was a top seed in the NIT last year and USU earned an at-large 11 seed. Here is comparison of their resume last year versus ours currently:
CSU 2021:
MWC: 14-4 (3rd)
Overall: 20-8
Net: 63
KPI: 38
SOR: 59
POM: 63
SAG: 74
BPI: 73
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 10-0
USU 2021:
MWC: 15-4 (3rd)
Overall: 20-9
Net: 47
KPI: 39
SOR: 66
POM: 40
SAG: 50
BPI: 49
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 2-1
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 8-0
Wyoming 2022:
MWC: 12-4 (3rd/4th)
Overall: 22-6 (doesn't count non-D1)
Net: 45
KPI: 30
SOR: 46
PM: 53
SAG: 79
BPI: 103
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 3-2
Q4: 10-0
Takeaways:
1. Conventional wisdom (aka twitter prognostications from Bracketologists) seem to think the committee will err on the side of resume strength when handing out at-large bids, but at least in the case of USU/CSU last year it really looks like they put some weight on the predictive metrics. This is what kills our resume and why I am so bearish on our chances. Our predictive metrics are really bad. Even if you throw out BPI, our Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings look an awful lot like CSU last year, not USU.
2. Good wins vs. Bad losses - Pokes have a couple of bad losses, but overall a stronger slate of wins than either USU or CSU had last year (mostly due to the MWC being stronger this year). I think that is probably our best metric right now. If we can beat UNLV and FSU that will likely be (2) more Q2 wins to add to the slate.
3. Razor's Edge. No matter how you slice it, the Pokes have gone from a 7/8 seed type discussion to squarely on the bubble.
CSU 2021:
MWC: 14-4 (3rd)
Overall: 20-8
Net: 63
KPI: 38
SOR: 59
POM: 63
SAG: 74
BPI: 73
Q1: 2-4
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 4-0
Q4: 10-0
USU 2021:
MWC: 15-4 (3rd)
Overall: 20-9
Net: 47
KPI: 39
SOR: 66
POM: 40
SAG: 50
BPI: 49
Q1: 2-6
Q2: 2-1
Q3: 7-2
Q4: 8-0
Wyoming 2022:
MWC: 12-4 (3rd/4th)
Overall: 22-6 (doesn't count non-D1)
Net: 45
KPI: 30
SOR: 46
PM: 53
SAG: 79
BPI: 103
Q1: 4-4
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 3-2
Q4: 10-0
Takeaways:
1. Conventional wisdom (aka twitter prognostications from Bracketologists) seem to think the committee will err on the side of resume strength when handing out at-large bids, but at least in the case of USU/CSU last year it really looks like they put some weight on the predictive metrics. This is what kills our resume and why I am so bearish on our chances. Our predictive metrics are really bad. Even if you throw out BPI, our Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings look an awful lot like CSU last year, not USU.
2. Good wins vs. Bad losses - Pokes have a couple of bad losses, but overall a stronger slate of wins than either USU or CSU had last year (mostly due to the MWC being stronger this year). I think that is probably our best metric right now. If we can beat UNLV and FSU that will likely be (2) more Q2 wins to add to the slate.
3. Razor's Edge. No matter how you slice it, the Pokes have gone from a 7/8 seed type discussion to squarely on the bubble.
