As we move into conference play and the new year, just a few comments on the MWC and the Pokes:
1. BSU/UNLV - Watched the BSU/UNLV game last night. Both teams are very good, Hutchison is probably the favorite for MWC POY right now. Rice has really done a fantastic job at BSU. They have a number of impressive looking sophomores as well and he did a really nice job of picking up a couple of grad transfers (Lexus Williams and Christian Sengfelder) who have filled in nicely.
2. MWC Standings - The MWC Top 5 really looks to be Nevada, BSU, UNLV, Fresno, and SDSU. UNM/WYO are probably the spoilers, but I don't think they are as consistent as the Top 5. CSU might suck, hopefully they are as crappy as they have looked recently. AFA and SJSU do suck. Would be nice if we could avoid a loss to either one.
3. Hunter Maldonado - There have been some interesting discussions on recent threads regarding Maldonado and his game, particularly his struggles offensively. It is interesting because watching him overall he is pretty impressive for a freshman in terms of his feel for the game and his decision making. Will his offense come around? Well, I can't say for sure, but watching Hutchison play for BSU last night reminded me of how much he developed offensively and I went back to look at his freshman stats and found something pretty interesting:
Hutchison (as a Fr.): 3.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.5 spg, 35%FG, 65% FT, 28% 3 PT
Maldonado: 3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 34% FG, 65% FT, 22% 3PT
Even look at more advanced stats (per KenPom), they are very close:
Hutchison (as a Fr.): 38.2% EFG%, 43% TS, 12.2 DR%, 2.4 STL%, 40.8 FT Rate
Maldonado: 37.5% EFG, 42.2% TS, 11.9 DR%, 2.2 STL%, 38.6 FT Rate.
Also, here are the advanced stats for Josh Adams as another comparison with a freshman who struggled shooting. I didn't include his total stats because he played a lot more minutes, but as a Freshman Adams shot 22.6% from 3 (Maldonado is 22% from 3)
Adams (as a Fr.): 39.6% EFG, 44.2% TS, 16.4 DR%, 1.8 STL%, 43.1 FT rate.
Obviously this doesn't mean Maldonado is going to become Chandler Hutchison or Josh Adams and there are probably 100's of freshmen around the country putting up struggling numbers like Maldonado and most of them will not develop into all conference players. It does show that shooting struggles as a freshman can be overcome, particularly with players that pass the eye test in other ways.
I don't think he will become the next Hutchison, but I would be very surprised if he doesn't develop into a really solid MWC starter for the Pokes.
4. Speaking of player comparisons, how about this comparison between Sophomore Point Guards:
PG #1: 30.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 turnovers/gm, 35% FG, 74% FT, 32.3% 3PT
PG#2: 23.2 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.6 turnovers/gm, 44% FG, 69% FT, 44% 3PT
These numbers aren't as close as the Hutch/Maldonado comparison but I find them interesting. PG#1 is Grabau, PG#2 is Cody Kelley. Obviously Kelley turns the ball over at a higher rate than Grabau, but in everything else he is exceeding where Grabau was at that point in his career.
Of course, we are able to remember Grabau fondly because he played alongside Nance/Adams. Kelley doesn't quite have the same luxury, but he has outperformed my expectations and clearly earned the starting PG position on this team.
5. Recruiting - Still not sure what Edwards plan is here. We have 5 scholarships open with only 2 commits for next year. If we have one or two players leave in the spring (not saying we will, but history suggests it will happen), we could be trying to fill 4 or 5 spots in the spring. That's not a great situation IMO. I do think we need an impact JC or Grad transfer next year and maybe one spot goes to a D-1 transfer, but I do not want to see us become too dependent on the transfer market. Our best players historically have come to the program as high schoolers and developed. (P.S. No offense to Ian, Gags, or the CST, but as a Wyoming fan interested in recruiting I sure miss Tom Lacock on the recruiting beat, although I do enjoy the more opinionated Tom Lacock on the message board).
1. BSU/UNLV - Watched the BSU/UNLV game last night. Both teams are very good, Hutchison is probably the favorite for MWC POY right now. Rice has really done a fantastic job at BSU. They have a number of impressive looking sophomores as well and he did a really nice job of picking up a couple of grad transfers (Lexus Williams and Christian Sengfelder) who have filled in nicely.
2. MWC Standings - The MWC Top 5 really looks to be Nevada, BSU, UNLV, Fresno, and SDSU. UNM/WYO are probably the spoilers, but I don't think they are as consistent as the Top 5. CSU might suck, hopefully they are as crappy as they have looked recently. AFA and SJSU do suck. Would be nice if we could avoid a loss to either one.
3. Hunter Maldonado - There have been some interesting discussions on recent threads regarding Maldonado and his game, particularly his struggles offensively. It is interesting because watching him overall he is pretty impressive for a freshman in terms of his feel for the game and his decision making. Will his offense come around? Well, I can't say for sure, but watching Hutchison play for BSU last night reminded me of how much he developed offensively and I went back to look at his freshman stats and found something pretty interesting:
Hutchison (as a Fr.): 3.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.5 spg, 35%FG, 65% FT, 28% 3 PT
Maldonado: 3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 34% FG, 65% FT, 22% 3PT
Even look at more advanced stats (per KenPom), they are very close:
Hutchison (as a Fr.): 38.2% EFG%, 43% TS, 12.2 DR%, 2.4 STL%, 40.8 FT Rate
Maldonado: 37.5% EFG, 42.2% TS, 11.9 DR%, 2.2 STL%, 38.6 FT Rate.
Also, here are the advanced stats for Josh Adams as another comparison with a freshman who struggled shooting. I didn't include his total stats because he played a lot more minutes, but as a Freshman Adams shot 22.6% from 3 (Maldonado is 22% from 3)
Adams (as a Fr.): 39.6% EFG, 44.2% TS, 16.4 DR%, 1.8 STL%, 43.1 FT rate.
Obviously this doesn't mean Maldonado is going to become Chandler Hutchison or Josh Adams and there are probably 100's of freshmen around the country putting up struggling numbers like Maldonado and most of them will not develop into all conference players. It does show that shooting struggles as a freshman can be overcome, particularly with players that pass the eye test in other ways.
I don't think he will become the next Hutchison, but I would be very surprised if he doesn't develop into a really solid MWC starter for the Pokes.
4. Speaking of player comparisons, how about this comparison between Sophomore Point Guards:
PG #1: 30.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 turnovers/gm, 35% FG, 74% FT, 32.3% 3PT
PG#2: 23.2 mpg, 5.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.6 turnovers/gm, 44% FG, 69% FT, 44% 3PT
These numbers aren't as close as the Hutch/Maldonado comparison but I find them interesting. PG#1 is Grabau, PG#2 is Cody Kelley. Obviously Kelley turns the ball over at a higher rate than Grabau, but in everything else he is exceeding where Grabau was at that point in his career.
Of course, we are able to remember Grabau fondly because he played alongside Nance/Adams. Kelley doesn't quite have the same luxury, but he has outperformed my expectations and clearly earned the starting PG position on this team.
5. Recruiting - Still not sure what Edwards plan is here. We have 5 scholarships open with only 2 commits for next year. If we have one or two players leave in the spring (not saying we will, but history suggests it will happen), we could be trying to fill 4 or 5 spots in the spring. That's not a great situation IMO. I do think we need an impact JC or Grad transfer next year and maybe one spot goes to a D-1 transfer, but I do not want to see us become too dependent on the transfer market. Our best players historically have come to the program as high schoolers and developed. (P.S. No offense to Ian, Gags, or the CST, but as a Wyoming fan interested in recruiting I sure miss Tom Lacock on the recruiting beat, although I do enjoy the more opinionated Tom Lacock on the message board).
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