This has been a tough season obviously, and I haven't closely monitored KenPom and other advanced stats (EvanMiya, etc.) like I normally do, but I thought I would take a look at where some things stand and see if we can glean some insights into what is broken, how likely it is to get fixed for next year, etc. beyond just the obvious (no Graham = no Good).
A few items of note:
1. Defense - We don't play it. That is the primary takeaway when looking at these numbers. KenPom can be overly used (I am guilty of this myself), but when the numbers seem to directionally match the eye test I tend to give them weight. As myself, Cup, Jackal, Pokebball, and others have noted on here our defense ranges from mildly interested to borderline embarrassing. The KenPom ratings really bear that out. Some notes:
a. Overall Rating - Our KenPom Adjusted Defensive Rating is 244. That's the worst in the MWC by a healthy margin. Our raw numbers are actually 291st (291st!), but we have played a relatively solid schedule.
b. Historical Comparison - Our Adjusted Offensive Rating is 95th, which is down from 67th last year, but still pretty solid. Better than any Schroyer, Edwards, or Shyatt team and about the same as the 01-02 team that won the MWC and a NCAAT game (that team was 91st). Now, this is where I say KenPom isn't everything because I don't care what the numbers say this team is not offensively as good as 01-02. Still, the point is that this team scores enough. The defense is just historically awful. The only years over the past 25 (as far back as KenPom goes) that are comparable are Linder's first year (actually our worst in that time frame), Edwards third year, and Shyatt's last year.
c. Historical Comparison (continued) - if we are looking for silver linings, here is one. This team with even an average defense is probably a Top 100 team. There is a long ways to go before we get to "average" but the historical comparisons are pretty relevant. Each of those previous awful defensive seasons had one thing in common: No interior presence. Shyatt's last team was awful in the post and on the glass with skinny underclassmen, and Edwards 3rd year, Linder's first, and this year all share the same affliction (starting and playing HT for the majority of minutes at the 5..sorry, it's just the truth). There is of course, a potential solution to that problem if he gets healthy and returns for next year.
d. Overall Defense - It's not just one thing when you look into the numbers. We actually aren't a terrible defensive rebounding team (that was the main issue that crushed Shyatt's last team), but we are pretty much terrible at everything else. We don't block shots or force turnovers, teams score at will in the paint and from 3. Even our FT defense is terrible (I am joking, but talk about bad luck, on top of everything else teams have shot the 5th highest percentage on the FT line of any teams total opponents at nearly 78%).
2. Individual Players - a few key notes:
a. Noah Reynolds - I shouldn't have been surprised, but it still threw me when I saw the usage rate. He is in the Top 10 nationally among % of possessions and % of shots while he is on the floor. In a vacuum this isn't really surprising as Linder has always played that way whether it was Maldo/Ike last year, Wiliams the year before, or guys like Jordan Davis and Andre Spight at UNC. Still, while it is a credit to Reynolds it's also an indictment on the rest of the roster. Reynolds is a good player but we have been WAY too dependent upon him to make plays. Need more out of other guys. Speaking of which..
b. Oden/DuSell - I lump these guys together because they were part of the initial recruiting class that showed so much promise. Both of them have not reached the level I thought they would. During their freshman season, DuSell was right there with Ike and Williams down the stretch in terms of scoring and impact. He had some injury issues last year, so was hoping for a bounceback this year but it hasn't really happened. His 3 point shooting has been solid (41.7% compared to 32% last year, 45% as a freshman), but aside from that he really hasn't progressed. He is averaging career lows in minutes and points despite being one of the relatively healthier Pokes this year. He is also only 7 of 25 on 2-point shots this year. He has become completely one dimensional on offense with the only threat being the 3-point shot. That has always been his game, but it is extreme this year. He even has a career low Assist Rate. Oden is in much the same boat. His efficiency is way down as his minutes, points, and rebounds. Just from watching him, I don't think it is fair to say there is no development, but it seems to only show up about every 4th game. I realize this sounds critical of both guys, but it is more consternation. I am a big fan of both guys, they played pivotal roles in pulling us out of the AE hole and leading us to a NCAA tourney. Both seem like great guys and representatives for UW. I just feel like there is more potential there waiting to come out (especially Oden).
Overall, it's not a pretty picture which matches the results. Let's see if they can show something on defense the rest of the year.
A few items of note:
1. Defense - We don't play it. That is the primary takeaway when looking at these numbers. KenPom can be overly used (I am guilty of this myself), but when the numbers seem to directionally match the eye test I tend to give them weight. As myself, Cup, Jackal, Pokebball, and others have noted on here our defense ranges from mildly interested to borderline embarrassing. The KenPom ratings really bear that out. Some notes:
a. Overall Rating - Our KenPom Adjusted Defensive Rating is 244. That's the worst in the MWC by a healthy margin. Our raw numbers are actually 291st (291st!), but we have played a relatively solid schedule.
b. Historical Comparison - Our Adjusted Offensive Rating is 95th, which is down from 67th last year, but still pretty solid. Better than any Schroyer, Edwards, or Shyatt team and about the same as the 01-02 team that won the MWC and a NCAAT game (that team was 91st). Now, this is where I say KenPom isn't everything because I don't care what the numbers say this team is not offensively as good as 01-02. Still, the point is that this team scores enough. The defense is just historically awful. The only years over the past 25 (as far back as KenPom goes) that are comparable are Linder's first year (actually our worst in that time frame), Edwards third year, and Shyatt's last year.
c. Historical Comparison (continued) - if we are looking for silver linings, here is one. This team with even an average defense is probably a Top 100 team. There is a long ways to go before we get to "average" but the historical comparisons are pretty relevant. Each of those previous awful defensive seasons had one thing in common: No interior presence. Shyatt's last team was awful in the post and on the glass with skinny underclassmen, and Edwards 3rd year, Linder's first, and this year all share the same affliction (starting and playing HT for the majority of minutes at the 5..sorry, it's just the truth). There is of course, a potential solution to that problem if he gets healthy and returns for next year.
d. Overall Defense - It's not just one thing when you look into the numbers. We actually aren't a terrible defensive rebounding team (that was the main issue that crushed Shyatt's last team), but we are pretty much terrible at everything else. We don't block shots or force turnovers, teams score at will in the paint and from 3. Even our FT defense is terrible (I am joking, but talk about bad luck, on top of everything else teams have shot the 5th highest percentage on the FT line of any teams total opponents at nearly 78%).
2. Individual Players - a few key notes:
a. Noah Reynolds - I shouldn't have been surprised, but it still threw me when I saw the usage rate. He is in the Top 10 nationally among % of possessions and % of shots while he is on the floor. In a vacuum this isn't really surprising as Linder has always played that way whether it was Maldo/Ike last year, Wiliams the year before, or guys like Jordan Davis and Andre Spight at UNC. Still, while it is a credit to Reynolds it's also an indictment on the rest of the roster. Reynolds is a good player but we have been WAY too dependent upon him to make plays. Need more out of other guys. Speaking of which..
b. Oden/DuSell - I lump these guys together because they were part of the initial recruiting class that showed so much promise. Both of them have not reached the level I thought they would. During their freshman season, DuSell was right there with Ike and Williams down the stretch in terms of scoring and impact. He had some injury issues last year, so was hoping for a bounceback this year but it hasn't really happened. His 3 point shooting has been solid (41.7% compared to 32% last year, 45% as a freshman), but aside from that he really hasn't progressed. He is averaging career lows in minutes and points despite being one of the relatively healthier Pokes this year. He is also only 7 of 25 on 2-point shots this year. He has become completely one dimensional on offense with the only threat being the 3-point shot. That has always been his game, but it is extreme this year. He even has a career low Assist Rate. Oden is in much the same boat. His efficiency is way down as his minutes, points, and rebounds. Just from watching him, I don't think it is fair to say there is no development, but it seems to only show up about every 4th game. I realize this sounds critical of both guys, but it is more consternation. I am a big fan of both guys, they played pivotal roles in pulling us out of the AE hole and leading us to a NCAA tourney. Both seem like great guys and representatives for UW. I just feel like there is more potential there waiting to come out (especially Oden).
Overall, it's not a pretty picture which matches the results. Let's see if they can show something on defense the rest of the year.
